Well, here we are again. Yes, the irony is not lost on me that I wrote a literal Cassandra post before the election, yet afterwards everyone keeps finger-pointing and talking about the 2024 election as if it is an isolated incident and not the result of 40 years or more of long-term degradation of the US electoral process.

Anyway, we can’t think long-term right now. We are stuck in the moment, and we’re about to have another wave of intentional crises – a veritable Gish Gallop of oppression – that is designed to overwhelm our ability to fight against any of the individual pieces. It happened during Trump’s first administration, and it’s only going to get worse this time. While we don’t know exactly what will happen and when, there’s a lot of panic and anticipation about all the things that could happen.

For that reason, I wanted to build a rough priority list of possible actions and what we can do about them. I’ll be approaching these on the axes of likelihood, immediacy, and impact. Please remember that this list is a) not comprehensive and b) not intended as a suggestion of how you should organize your own personal priorities. If you are doing whatever you can in areas that matter to you, you’re helping. Rather, this list is a way to organize your thoughts to avoid despair or decision paralysis.

Mass Deportation – Certain, Immediate, High Impact

If there was one overriding theme of Trump’s 2024 campaign, it was about the evils of immigrants (but only the brown ones). Attacks on immigrants are going to happen on a scale we haven’t seen in a long time. The references to Eisenhower are a clear warning of both the intended operation and the lack of concern for due process. (I can’t even refer to Eisenhower’s program directly, because it blatantly used a horrible racial slur as its name.)

The people most equipped to fight this are legal organizations such as the Immigrant Defense Project or the Immigrant Legal Resource Center. Those organizations are going to need a lot of monetary and volunteer support right away, since their case load is about to balloon exponentially. However, there are things you can do as an individual to help thwart the efforts of ICE and local police to round up people indiscriminately. First, make sure your work place is prepared to turn back law enforcement from entering without a warrant. Check with your kids’ schools and your places of worship. Print out and share the ILRC’s Red Cards in whatever languages are relevant to your neighbors and coworkers.

Depending on how things go, you may want to help more directly. If you are planning to do that, make sure that you are using apps like Signal and looking up information for your plans on an updated Tor browser. Get your contact networks set up now. Don’t wait until it becomes relevant.

International Relations Breakdown – Likely, Immediate, High Impact

While there are multiple hotspots around the world right now, the two most vulnerable are certainly Gaza and Ukraine. Gaza is the one we were going to need to fight for even if Harris had been elected, but the prospect of pushing US politicians to help us save Palestinian lives is no longer even remotely possible. Netanyahu has already shown how emboldened he feels by a Trump presidency with his pick of new ambassador to the US. Without traveling out of this country, about all we are left with in the near term is supporting international aid agencies. There might be some ability for continuing protests and strikes to push more companies and organizations toward divestment, but that probably won’t be quick enough to make a difference. This one is hard to be hopeful about, but if you have the energy to act, please continue to do so.

Ukraine is in a different but also precarious position. Given Trump’s nearly unconditional praise for Putin, we’re probably about to see US abandon its support for Ukraine and let Russia have as much as it wants. He has already threatened to withdraw funding from Ukraine if Zelensky doesn’t accept terms for negotiations. Again, local and international aid agencies are the best way to help the Ukrainian people from here. Even if we could somehow get other NATO countries to allow Ukraine’s full membership over the wishes of the Trump administration, Trump would use that as an excuse to pull out of NATO entirely – a disastrous decision that would massively weaken the US globally (which Putin would love). In the longer term, look for Putin to start eyeing the Baltic states next. Again, there isn’t much we can do about that directly, but be prepared to speak up about it.

Attacks on Women’s Rights – Likely, Longer Term, High Impact

While there may be a few acts we’ll see right away, like the repeal of some Biden-era actions enforcing pay equality for federal employees, the bigger measures will probably take some time. One way or another, we will probably see some sort of push for a national abortion ban, mostly because conservatives in general and Trump in particular greatly resent individual states deciding this issue for themselves in a different way than they want (no matter what they say about Dobbs). This could come from Congress or the Supreme Court, depending on how willing the thin Republican majority is to commit to this fight. If there’s a legislative push, make sure your representatives are fighting it at every step. If you live in a Republican district or a state with Republican senators, call their offices frequently and let them know that they should not expect to be reelected if they support such a measure. If it comes from the Supreme Court or executive decree, we can expect that the first steps will involve revival of the Comstock Act. This act is currently not enforced because it is vague to the point of being nigh-unenforceable, so support the various legal organizations that will be bringing challenges to it.

Other threats to women’s rights, such as bans on no-fault divorce, are less likely but still possible to varying degrees. They are more likely to occur at the state level first rather than from any top-down push.

The other terrifying thing that we’re seeing already is the emboldening of the young misogynists that helped Trump get elected. The current generation of young men in their late teens to early thirties have been raised in an awful internet culture that I have been trying to warn people about for over a decade, and their violently anti-woman sense of entitlement is going to make life really scary for people of marginalized genders. We’re going to see more legal apathy towards prosecuting their crimes (even more than we already have, which is saying something), and we may even see more legal protections for those accused of such crimes, making accusers even less likely to step forward.

For all of these issues, the big thing that I can say is that men need to stand up. We need to call out bad behavior wherever we see it, and we need to not tolerate any claims of “jokes” or other ridiculous defenses for abhorrent language. Women are already taking measures to protect themselves, so they don’t need any suggestions from me. Men, we’re the ones who need to get our shit together.

Erosion of Gender and Sexuality Rights – Likely, Longer Term, High Impact

The fights we’ve been having at our state and local levels for the past several years are about to break national, and we should expect more fronts to open up. The first place we’ll see this is in executive actions regarding policies for federal employees and institutions. Lots of protections there are about to go away, and this will contribute to an overall exodus of federal employees through firing or resignation. We’ll also see significantly reduced enforcement of public protections and civil rights through things like Title IX and the NLRB.

We’re probably not going to see any major federal legislation, because LGBTQ+ people are already at significant risk. All they’re going to do is erode rights and protections and let the hostile environments do the work for them. The other major threat we’re going to see will be from the Supreme Court, who will probably try to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges. Again, legal defense organizations are going to be vital for that.

In considering what you can do, remember that young queer people and queer people of color are the most immediately vulnerable, so try to focus your efforts there. Support orgs like the Trevor Project and Garden of Peace (but always make sure to support orgs that explicitly do not require parental notification).

We can also expect pushes for book bans and restrictive policies to continue, so support your local libraries and public schools. Show up at school board meetings and make sure they’re not just hearing from the Moms for Liberty jerks. If you are queer and feel comfortable doing so (e.g. – if you’re white, well-off, and in a reasonably safe location), be as visible as possible. If you’re trying to be a cis-het ally, don’t hide your support EVER. If you think it’s awkward for you, think how much worse it is for people who can’t set aside their identity for a day. Make it obvious wherever you go. Let the kids see you and hear you standing up so they know that they have people on their side.

Climate Backtrack – Likely, Longer Term, Inevitable Impact

The climate remains the undercurrent of pretty much all worldwide conflicts and stressors right now. Immigration both here and in Europe has as much to do with dwindling natural resources as anything else. It also leads to hyper-nationalism and fascism as wealthy and privileged people cling desperately to every advantage so they can be the last ones standing. We are in a time of both accelerated scarcity and less dependable economic cycles, both of which lead to protectionist policies.

In the new Trump administration – as in other places – such policies cause a feedback loop in deepening the climate crisis. We’re certainly going to see massive deregulation even beyond the levels we saw in the previous term, and it’s going to be nigh impossible to stop and/or pull back quickly enough to mitigate global temperature rise. The problem is that because the effects of this tend to be slow (unless the Cuyahoga River catches fire again), and we’ve already got such intense blinders on, it’s extremely difficult to coordinate any meaningful action on this. About the only hope I can offer is for some technological solution, but I’m skeptical that it’s coming from any companies here in the US. And meanwhile, our big technology pushes (AI and apparently crypto again) are so bad for the environment that what little action we might take is largely irrelevant. We are past the usefulness of individual efforts (if ever those even were effective). Only big measures will have any effect now.

Regression of Civil Rights – Probable, Gradual, Varying Impact

This one is kind of a potpourri (albeit a stinky one) of many different effects. It includes voting rights, hate crime enforcement, police reform, sentencing reform, ADA protections, and many other things. As with some of the other issues, this is one where we’ll first see reduction in executive branch work to enforce existing laws and guidelines. There may not be much legislation (except maybe some connected to immigration), but the bureaucracy is about to get a lot less supportive of a bunch of minority groups, which I know is saying something. Depending on how far the Roberts court is willing to go, we may also see Supreme Court rulings that limit and even overturn protections and guidelines, which will accelerate the regression. A possible dark scenario may even see the overturning of Loving v. Virginia, although that would probably come well after an overturn of Obergefell.

Because so much of this will come through executive action or court decision, your best bet in supporting people through this regression will be to join and contribute to local community mutual aid groups. Also, join a union wherever possible.

Health Crisis Due to Lack of Vaccination, Fluoridation, and Food Safety – WHY DO I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT THIS ONE?

With all the appalling staffing appointments coming down the line right now, the one that just continues to baffle me is RFK Jr. heading to the FDA. I just can’t wrap my head around how bad Roadkill Robbie is going to be for the nation’s health.

Just…let’s move on. I need to wrap this thing up.

Summary

The first Trump administration was incredibly exhausting and stressful, and not just because a big chunk of it took place during a global pandemic. The sheer volume of crises we faced made it incredibly difficult to focus on any one thing at a time. As a result, we saw significant variation in organizational effectiveness. For instance, the Women’s March and Black Lives Matter movements gathered solid numbers and support, but (as is typically the case) the most privileged supporters of these movements bailed once they saw a slight return to status quo or they found something else to think about.

For any resistance to work long term, it has to have a plan to change both attitudes and the playing field itself. Meanwhile, people are going to be in great danger right away, and they can’t wait for those glacial shifts. For the near future – especially the first two years of this administration – focus your efforts on saving as many people as you can, and the best way you can do that is to act locally. And try not to spend too much time and energy yelling at the internet. Pace yourself, and take breaks when you need to.

Resistance is a relay, not a marathon. We only get through this together.